The NBI II: Detached From Ecological Reality?

Although the NBI has been lauded as a constructive move in de-escalating riparian tensions of increasing evidence from the 1980’s onwards, there are critiques as to its practicality as the singular functioning model. From a conceptual standpoint, critics including Ashok Swain (2002) have pointed to historical evidence suggesting that an integration of a sub-basin model would help the initiative to avoid micro management and disincentivisation, and thus be more appropriate than the NBI alone, which still partitions water rights based on ‘ecologically arbitrary’ (Wolfenson, 2001), boundaries of state borders. As he elucidates, to develop the full economic potential of the river it would be more optimal to regard the river based on a collection of supplementary basins, that should be regarded as individual units in their own rights, irrespective of state boundaries.

 As illustrated on the right hand side, we can see that the Nile distinctly partitions between

catchments. From this point of view, as Swain suggests, it is inefficient for example, to have countries in the tributaries of the White Nile (upstream; SB 1,2,4) be concerned with the usage patterns of a disconnected basin, namely that of the Blue Nile tributaries (SB6,7). As it stands, this is not the case, and a total consensus from all 10 riparian states is required to act on all issues throughout the basin.

However, is not an alternative without limitations as none of the Nile’s hydrological catchment is in Egypt even though the country has historically used the majority of the discharge. Although Egypt’s longstanding reliance on ‘acquired rights’ has become an increasingly tenuous defence in recent years, this doesn’t mean that moving forward their requirements can be dismissed at the expense of burgeoning upstream development initiatives. A singular sub basin approach would inevitably cause political fractures that the NBI has been established deter. Furthermore, with all of the countries on the Nile having agriculture economies as their primary sectors ‘irrigation has therefore become the cornerstone of food security’ (Swain, 2002: p.299), and is not surprising that downstream neighbours will be concerned with the actions of those in upstream basins, irrelevant of how ecologically removed they may first immediately appear. Therefore, to dismiss the conceptual relevance of the NBI as but a dream of bureaucratic actuality would be foolish, as a formal touchpoint for multilateral negotiations does have serious potential, even in an age where large institutions do not seem to be the flavour of the month, it seems to be a question of execution rather than of concept.

So in order to retain the value of a transboundary body whilst being effective, fluid chains of commands need to be established at varying scales so that the most pressing issues receive the lion’s share of resources in management solutions as the NBI in its infancy has demonstrated a cumbersome method of consensus and implication of projects (Sadoff, 2005). It is no secret that multilateral progress is deeply intertwined with incentives, and examples of China and Burma in the Mekong Basin, abstaining from regional co-operation is a timely reminder of how the NBI may be better placed to advocate ‘benefit sharing’ strategies as opposed to traditional ideas of ‘water sharing’ (Sadoff, 2002; Mason, 2004; Ndunda, 2006). As they receive no benefits from resource management schemes within their state borders, China and Burma have been resistant to transboundary co-operation. To further this point in relation to the Nile, the critical juncture seems to be how Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia can co-operate: unless Sudan and Ethiopia are incentivised by Egypt by some other means, a political impasse looks set to remain. 

References:

James Wolfensohn, “Rich Nations Can Remove World Poverty as a Source of

Conflict,” International Herald Tribune, 6 October 2001.

Swain, A. (2002) The Nile Basin Initiative: Too Many Cooks Too Little Broth : SAIS review Volume 22, Issue 2, pp.293-308

Sadoff, C.W., Grey, D., (2002), Beyond the river: the benefits of cooperation on

International rivers : “Water Policy”, no. 4

Mason, S. A., (2004), From Conflict to Cooperation in the Nile Basin, Zurich: Swiss

Federal Institute of Technology

Ndunda, E., (2006), States to sign Nile Accord Next Month, in: “The Standard”, no. 21,

November